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Economy-Trump == Pure Hype (Public Board)

by Cornpop Sutton ⌂, A bad bad dude who makes good shine., Sunday, December 21, 2025, 22:56 (8 days ago) @ JoFrance
edited by Cornpop Sutton, Sunday, December 21, 2025, 23:32

I think Trump has laid the groundwork for a booming economy.

I totally disagree. Trump has several plays that are all speculations.

He's done NOTHING about the debt or the deficit except very minor wins. The debt is driving inflation which is at the threshold of "hyper". The debt will create more instability.

It doesn't kick in till next year. Most financial people think that by the end of the second quarter everyone will feel the effects of the Trump economy. No tax on tips, overtime and Social Security.

I'm not holding my breath. These tax reductions will have minimal effect. They had a big effect in the 1980s because there was pent up demand and buying power. And there was a much higher standing individual income tax rate that gave Reagan room to turbo charge the economy by lowering federal taxes. (I think the top tax bracket before Reagan's changes was 70%.) The tax breaks today will be incremental. No tax on tips is dribs and drabs for the working poor.

We just need to be patient for a little awhile. I like his economic pro-growth strategy as a way to pay off the debt.

I like his pro-growth but the foundation (the dollar) is crumbling. The price of gold is a signature of how little faith exists in the dollar.

Being the AI leader among countries is what Trump wants for the US. We have to invest in AI even if its in a bubble to remain competitive.

So you think a bubble is good if it's the right bubble.

But OK, assuming AI becomes a big enough business to merit turning half of Indiana into a data center... You won't like the world that AI creates. At a large scale AI is going to eliminate most mid level professional jobs. IE, I bet in five years we're stuck with AI primary care physicians.

And much of the federal push on AI is to create massive surveillance. You ever read about what Palantir has done or is doing?

I personally think one of the most constructive things Trump has done is suggest opening up the US car market to very small cars and cheaper cars. We'll see if he even does it.

The point is, smokestack industries have powered China even tho they are high tech and in other markets you can still buy cheaper basic vehicles. The US auto industry is locked into a paradigm of mediocre mechanical design combined with hyper expensive tech and the auto industry as a direct result is prostrate.

Someone at the governmental level should fix that through tax or investment policy. But it's a smokestack industry and Trump is too fucking stupid to see through hype.

I mean, that's not an absolute. Trump is re-permitting coal production. He does get some things.

But Trump's focus seems heavily imbalanced toward high tech and glitzy leading edge strategies. IE, crypto investment by the Treasury.


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